TITLE: Predicting the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland
SPEAKER: Franciszek Rakowski, affiliated Researcher at ICM University of Warsaw; principal Data Scientist at the AI institute, Samsung R&D, Poland
DATE&TIME: Thursday, May 21, 2020 at 4:00 PM (CEST)
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One of the most promising approaches to predicting the possible scenarios of the epidemic is based on agent-based models. The idea of that model family is quite simple: reproduce the demographic and sociological structure of the society, and run the simulations of the disease spread throughout that structure. The direct reproduction of the contact structure allows investigating the consequences of various administrative measures applied, like school closure or travel restrictions. The model results can be visualised as a dynamic map of spreading disease, and enables the assessment of burden of disease factors locally. Our model, constructed more than 10 years ago for influenza epidemics, has been reanimated and tuned to COVID-19 parameters. It is now producing both scientific results as well as pragmatic reports, which are then being passed to Polish governmental authorities.
FRANCISZEK RAKOWSKI: Affiliated Researcher at ICM University of Warsaw.
Principal Data Scientist at the AI institute, Samsung R&D, Poland. Almost 10 years ago, when working at ICM UW as researcher, he led a project to construct a large-scale agent-based epidemic spread model for influenza disease. Recently, during the times of COVID-19 pandemic, he became the project leader of development and adaptation of the ICM Epidemic Model to the coronavirus disease. His interests also cover cognitive science, neuroscience and computational biology.